In a new report from British based International market research company, Interact Analysis indicates that revenues from electrified powertrains will increase from under $US1bn in 2020, to $US6.8bn in 2025 and then a massive $US22.7bn by 2030.
The report considers the market for all powertrain types in the Europe and North America regions: hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles.
The new report entitled Electrified Truck and Bus Powertrain Pricing and Architecture reveals some illuminating figures around the imminent change in commercial vehicle drivetrains across the world
Revenues are predicted to be much higher in the second half of the forecast period as more medium and heavy-duty vehicles enter the market. Battery packs will account for more than half the total revenue throughout the period for all systems (54 per cent in 2025), but hydrogen fuel cell systems will start to bring in significant revenues post 2025, while mild hybrids transmissions will occupy a much higher percentage of total revenues.
The average price of a truck battery pack in 2019, for all powertrain types, was $US8,000. The report predicts that this will rise to $US8,600 by 2025, defying the usual trend of price reductions as time passes.
“This is due to the fact that the average pack size will increase as more medium and heavy duty electric vehicles enter the market and the market becomes less dominated by light vehicles,” the report reveals
Conversely, battery packs for pure battery electric vehicles will see a gradual price reduction, from an average of $13,800 in 2019, through $11,800 in 2025 to $10,300 in 2030. This drop reflects the fact that many pure BEVs will be cars and light commercial vehicles, requiring smaller battery packs than large vehicles the report indicated
Hydrogen Fuel cell systems, currently found almost uniquely in buses, cost a hefty average of $96,000 per unit in 2020. However the research forecasts a dramatic decline in fuel cell prices out to 2030, in terms of a $/KW ration, as their application spreads in a range of heavy-duty vehicles. 2030 prices are predicted to average 23 per cent of the 2019 figure – a more dramatic decline than any other component in the report.
While the prices of battery packs and battery-related equipment such as battery management systems will hold up over the forecast period, where the whole powertrain is concerned, there will be a strong decline in prices for all categories of vehicle.
“Tough competition causes strong price erosion, and machined processes for equipment such as transmissions allow less expensive production when volumes become larger., ” said Jamie Fox, principal analyst at Interact Analysis.
“As an example, the average cost of an eAxle was $US 5,000 in 2019. This will drop to $US 1,800 by 2030, even when we take into account the anticipated proliferation of medium and heavy duty vehicles over the time period,” Fox added.
“So, our research tells us that the average cost of the powertrain for a full electric medium or heavy duty truck will drop from $105,000 in 2019 to $50,000 in 2030. Interestingly, however, the overall average price for all categories of vehicle powertrain will stay flat, as these new and exciting technologies lead to more and more heavy vehicles on our roads,” he said.
Interact Analysis says its data regarding estimated numbers of trucks and buses was extracted through primary research with industry experts and secondary research online.
It said that that the report benefitted in particular from a model built up at the OEM level, as well as a total cost of ownership model for forecasting. Further research for the report was conducted on the number of devices per vehicle and the pricing. The main source of this was primary research with component suppliers in the form of 20 telephone discussions. In addition, supplementary information for the report was gained from online sources and other Interact Analysis reports.
Interact Analysis says it is an international provider of market research for the Intelligent Automation sector.