Reports from the USA suggest that municipal  route buses continue to electrify at a rapid pace and will exceed 60 per cent of sales by 2030,  and will reach 83 per cent by 2040.

According to the latest 2024 Electric Vehicle Outlook  from major industry analyst Bloomberg New Energy Finance  municipal route buses,  currently  account for an estimated  3.4 million vehicles  worldwide, but emit no more than one per cent of road transport CO2 emissions

According to the report E-buses are expected to represent 86 per cent of the global fleet by 2050, with the segment is said to be almost on track and that only minor additional measures will be needed in terms of the level of policy intervention needed to achieve the Net Zero Scenario of 100 per cent ZEV share by 2050.

The report highlights how the global push towards decarbonization has gained significant traction in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly within the public transportation segment.

the report says that China leads the global market in electric bus adoption, a testament to its aggressive policies and substantial investments in electric vehicle infrastructure. However European countries are following suit, propelled by the European Union’s CO2 emissions targets, which mandate significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation sectors.

It reveals that the battery landscape for electric vehicles, particularly buses, is undergoing significant transformation driven by technological advancements and market dynamics. Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are at the forefront of this shift, gaining prominence due to their enhanced safety, longer life cycles, and lower costs compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries.

“In the Chinese market, EV lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cell prices have averaged $US53/kWh between January and April 2024, a 44 per cent year-on-year drop. Planned battery production capacity in China is almost seven times demand by 2026″, the report said.

LFP reaches more than 50 per cent of the global passenger EV market within the next two years. Nickel and manganese are among the biggest losers from the advancements in LFP batteries,” according to the report.

As a result it says  the anticipated need for nickel and manganese in EV batteries has been revised downward significantly, reflecting the growing dominance of LFP batteries in the market.

“Nickel consumption in lithium-ion batteries reaches 517,000 metric tons in 2025, while manganese reaches 131,000 metric tons. These are 25 per cent and 38 per cent lower than our previous estimates in EVO 2023 for nickel and manganese, respectively, due to the shift toward lower-cost chemistries,” the report said.